South Africa has already been feeling the heat from El Niño in some regions. October brought particularly hot days, reminding those of us in the farming industry that we are at the start of what could be a challenging season.
October is the month when summer grain and oilseed plantings start in South Africa. If you fly over the country, you’ll see planted fields in most regions; farmers have taken advantage of good soil moisture from last summer’s rains and the past few months to get seed in the ground.
Now the focus shifts to whether higher temperatures will distort seed germination. There are also worries that, in areas that haven’t yet been planted, farmers might be discouraged by El Niño forecasts and reduce plantings.
Fortunately, we already have a window into the farmers’ thinking about the 2026/2027 summer grains and oilseeds season. Data released by South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee last week show that farmers intend to plant 4.5-million hectares of summer grain and oilseed — maize (white and yellow), sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. While this is 2% lower than the 2025/2026 area planting, it aligns with the five-year average.
So, based on expectations, we can be confident farmers have so far not been notably swayed by the heatwave and El Niño drought concerns.
Early plantings
If we zoom in, farmers intend to plant 2.4-million hectares of maize in the 2026/2027 season, down 12% year on year — the smallest area in eight years. About eight seasons ago, in the midst of a dry period, farmers planted an area of just 2.3-million hectares, and produced a poor crop of 11.3Mt at the end of the season.
For oilseeds, soybean plantings are forecast at 2.4-million hectares, roughly unchanged from the previous season. Positively, 2026/2027 sunflower seed plantings are forecast at
824,600ha, up 45% from the previous season. It appears some farmers have shifted white maize area to sunflower seed, leading ot a notable jump in sunflower seed area planted. Sunflower seed can withstand drier weather conditions better than maize.
We may also see an increase in cotton plantings in the North West province, another crop that tends to perform better even in harsh climatic conditions.
Aside from these major oilseeds, other crops may decline. For example, groundnut plantings are forecast at 43,280ha (down 3% year on year), sorghum at 39,500ha (down 1% year on year), and dry beans at 35,770ha (down 7% year on year).
Now, the heatwave and the El Niño-induced drought are one factor to consider. Higher input costs are another issue, as we remain in an environment of elevated fertiliser and fuel prices thanks to the ongoing US-Iran war. Together, fertiliser and fuel account for roughly half of farmers’ input costs, and both have surged in recent months.
Overall, 2026/2027 summer crop planting remains decent, showing farmers are resilient. But given that 80%–85% of summer grains and oilseeds are rainfed, the El Niño-induced drought is a major risk. For now, I’m encouraged by the figures and farmers’ intentions to maintain a decent crop area, but we will only really know whether they go ahead come January 27, when the Crop Estimates Committee releases the preliminary planting data.
From a consumer perspective, there are no immediate risks. South Africa has ample grain and oilseed supplies for the 2025/2026 season, and the country is in a good supply position through to mid-2027. From there on, we will rely on the crops farmers plant, and we will know in the coming months how the season unfolds.
Sihlobo is South Africa’s agriculture and land envoy, and the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. His new book, “Balance and Reason: A Growth Path for South Africa’s Agriculture”, will be in stores from November 9
