October is a special month for global agricultural and food organisations — in particular, October 16, World Food Day. On this day, countries around the world mark the founding of the UN Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in 1945. At the same time, they reflect on their food security conditions and outline plans to strengthen resilience and contribute to efforts to reduce poverty in highly impoverished countries.
This year’s World Food Day celebrations were different. Where countries previously reported declining poverty levels, the outlook for 2027 is worrying, particularly in Southern Africa. Many countries in the region face rising costs due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which have driven up energy prices and complicated supply chains. Compounding the challenge going into 2027 is the likely El Niño drought, which could push up poverty across most of the region.
Already, the FAO suggests conditions could be worse than the 2015-2016 drought. In late June, commenting on Southern Africa’s 2015-2016 droughts and the expected 2026-2027 drought, the FAO stated that “the most recent El Niño cycle brought the region’s worst drought in more than a century, leaving 61-million people in need of assistance, straining livestock, water systems and pasturelands, and pushing more than 8-million people into food insecurity”.
It added: “The forecast points to a greater than 50% probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia and Botswana, extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and parts of Mozambique and Madagascar.”
Compounding concerns is that Southern Africa is facing this challenge at a time when global humanitarian aid is less readily available. Recent wars in the Black Sea and Middle East mean resources that would ordinarily be channelled to mitigate the causes of poverty, such as the expected drought, are constrained by competing needs.
In addition, the US administration’s decision to abandon USAID means that the World Food Programme, which relied heavily on USAID funding, has fewer resources to assist. If the expected drought devastates agricultural production, Southern Africa may face a much tougher period than in the recent past when it comes to food supplies.
South Africa cushioned
Farmers have started planting crops for the 2026-2027 season, though some know the coming months may bring challenges. This means governments have a limited window to assist with the current season.
For countries that import food supplies, the private sector must have a clearer pathway for imports. This means limitations on grain imports, such as bans on genetically modified grains, may need to be suspended to ensure adequate food supplies. Where fiscal space allows, household assistance may also be necessary in the coming months, depending on whether the season runs as feared.
In countries with agricultural supplies in the region, it may be tempting to impose an export ban to protect domestic supplies. But such policy actions typically worsen the problem. They reduce incentives for agribusinesses and farmers to expand production in favourable seasons and cause price shocks that worsen conditions for importing countries.
What matters is transparent information sharing so market participants can make timely decisions that adjust quickly to reflect each country’s realities.
Closer to home, South Africa remains in a more fortunate position than much of the region. The 2025-2026 season was a period of abundance in grains and oilseeds, ensuring ample supplies to cushion the country going into the next year. For example, the maize harvest is at a record 17.5Mt against the annual consumption of 12Mt. Stocks were also ample at the start of the year, which further improved supplies.
In addition, South African agribusinesses are better placed to import when supply glitches occur.
The country’s dams are more than 80% full, which also suggests that fruit and vegetables typically produced under irrigation may be spared to an extent from the challenges we may witness in other countries in the region.
In essence, Southern Africa is likely heading towards a rise in poverty in 2027 because of the El Niño drought. While South Africa is as exposed as the rest of the region, the impact may be milder here. Still, the country may have to shoulder the region’s challenges and export produce to our neighbours to stabilise regional food needs.
Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior research fellow in the department of agricultural economics at Stellenbosch University
