Though we’ve seen headlines about rising food prices in some parts of the world in recent months, South Africa has largely dodged the bullet. But the country is not immune to food security issues.
Where others are facing increasing costs, the ample agricultural harvest of the 2025/2026 season has helped ease food prices for South Africans. However, that doesn’t mean we don’t have hunger in our country. We certainly do. In fact, even though we’re generally food insecure at the national level, we face a major challenge when it comes to household food insecurity.
But this isn’t caused by a surge in food prices or by South Africa being saddled with generally higher food prices than other countries. Instead, we struggle with income poverty.
It’s unsurprising, given our high unemployment, which was sitting at 33.6% in the second quarter. With so many people out of work, income poverty is inevitable until we grow the economy and create more jobs.
On food, though, the data confirms that we have enjoyed the lowest food price inflation in some time. Take Stats SA’s September 2026 inflation data: headline inflation was 4.5%, up from 4.4% in August. But if you step away from the headline figure and look at food alone, the rate of change was much softer.
Consumer food price inflation rose to 1% in September, up from 0.7% in August and 0.6% in July. The August and July figures were the lowest in 16 years, again showing that South Africans have been partly spared the surge in food prices that some countries feared.
Even the September uptick to 1% is not notable; food inflation is still sitting at softer levels. For those wondering what was behind the mild uptick, the major price drivers were fish and other seafood; milk, other dairy and eggs; oils and fats; and vegetables.
Across these products, a few key factors underpinned the price changes. For example, the uptick in oils and fats prices aligns with what we are seeing internationally; one factor is palm oil prices, up to dry weather jeopardising production prospects in Southeast Asia. Fish and other seafood prices also follow the global trend because of a supply blip. For vegetables, milk, other dairy and eggs, base effects are the main driver, as these products were in deflation in September 2025.
Clouds on the horizon
Overall, the products with major weighting in the food basket continue to moderate, ultimately keeping consumer food price inflation at relatively lower levels. These are mainly cereal products, fruit and nuts, whose prices are dropping.
Meat price inflation is also softening as domestic supplies remain decent. Fears of foot-and-mouth disease seem to be receding as the vaccination campaign makes progress.
Another factor is that during foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, the country is typically temporarily closed to some export markets, increasing domestic supplies even if slaughter has declined somewhat. Essentially, the base effects on meat prices, along with continued cattle slaughter, have helped ease price inflation. Poultry production conditions are also favourable.
If we zoom in on the key products, cereal products are in deflation, thanks to yet another year of better grain production. South Africa’s summer grain and oilseed production is forecast at a record 21.6Mt, up 5% from the 2024/2025 season. This comprises maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. This ample harvest adds to already large stocks from the past season, keeping grain prices under pressure.
Looking ahead, South Africa will likely experience lower food price inflation this year, with some risks ahead in 2027.
The US-Iran war remains the major near-term risk and continues to drive higher fuel costs. That’s a problem, given that fuel accounts for a substantial share of food distribution costs; more than 80% of staple food products are transported by road.
Also, the El Niño drought in the 2026/2027 season, starting now, is a concern. Still, it may only affect the direction of 2027 food price inflation, as it will affect next season’s crop, currently being planted across the country, which will come to market mid-year.
For now, though, the ample agricultural harvest of the 2025/2026 season has done South Africa a great service — these inflation figures provide the proof.
Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land and chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa
