For farmers, memories of Southern Africa’s 2014–2016 drought are sure to linger. The two-year crisis saw cattle, goats and sheep die across the country as farmers struggled to feed them due to limited water supplies. The stress on households and the psychological impact on farmers were immense.
We were, at the time, in the midst of an El Niño drought.
The decade that followed was not nearly as challenging for South African agriculture; indeed, it was a period of relative abundance. Sure, there were minor droughts, heatwaves and animal disease that weighed on agriculture and farmers’ finances, but none of these compared with the drought that had gripped the region in the preceding years.
Now memories of the drought have been revived by talk that we’re headed towards a severe El Niño that will result in similar challenges — or even worse ones.
Over the past few weeks, as more weather-related data has become available, I’ve become increasingly worried that the 2026–2027 summer season may indeed be challenging for the agricultural sector. But I am even more troubled when I see some calling it potentially the biggest crisis ahead of us. See, we are heading towards a likely 2026/2027 drought far better prepared than we were in the past — even if that is the result of luck rather than foresight.
Consider the past few weeks across South Africa: we have received rain in some areas and snow in others. These weather events may have been an inconvenience to households, but they’ve been a gift ahead of the likely drier summer: they have steadily improved soil moisture, benefited the grazing veld and helped maintain higher dam levels. This could help cushion South Africa, or at the least provide a better start to the 2026/2027 season.
There are, of course, concerns about the knock-on effect of the looming drought on food prices. But, though we are concerned about the expected dryness, households should not panic — compelling evidence suggests that South Africans will have a better start to the new year. After all, ample agricultural harvests have rewarded us with relatively lower prices for certain food products. As things stand, we still have plenty of food supplies from the 2025/2026 season.
For example, South Africa’s summer grains and oilseeds production is forecast to reach a record 21.6Mt, up 5% from the 2024/2025 season, according to data from the Crop Estimates Committee. This figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybean, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. This ample harvest adds to already large stocks from the past season, keeping grain prices under pressure.
Similarly, favourable La Niña rains in the 2025/2026 production season resulted in plentiful fruit and vegetable supplies.
As a result, consumer food prices remain low. In fact, food price inflation was 0.7% in August 2026, according to data from Stats SA. If we exclude the July 2026 figure, which was 0.6%, this is the lowest level in 16 years.
Importantly, grains, fruit and vegetable prices remain in deflation because of these abundant supplies. Given the available supplies, I am more convinced that these lower food price inflation levels will be the running theme throughout the year and into the first quarter of 2027.
I highlight this not to dismiss the challenges of the drought ahead. As farmers prepare to start the 2026/2027 summer crop season in mid-October, they are rightly concerned about the weather prospects.
Still, I would argue that the start of the season will be far better than the 2014–2016 period. The better soil moisture from the 2025/2026 summer season will help. Commercially produced fruits and vegetables, which are 100% under irrigation, will benefit from good dam levels across the country (the major dams are more than 80% full). And the grazing veld for the livestock is also in good condition, provided we don’t experience veld fires around the country.
So while we must underscore the likelihood of a challenging path ahead, we must also be measured. Let’s not equate current conditions with the 2014–2016 period — not because they will be mild in comparison, but because we’re better placed to weather the hardship due to plentiful water and food supplies in general.
Sihlobo is chair of the agribusiness working group in the Brics Business Council (South Africa chapter) and the presidential envoy on agriculture and land
