South Africa’s agricultural focus has shifted to the 2026-2027 summer crop season, which begins this month. Farmers in some areas have started preparing the land and, in a few weeks, we should see activity across all regions.
It’s all looking rather good. The recent rains have further improved soil moisture, building on already better-than-normal soil moisture levels from last season, when the rain continued through May, rather than tapering off in March as usual.
What we don’t know yet is how much farmers will plant, amid fears of an El Niño-induced drought and higher costs thanks to the war against Iran. We should have a clue when, on October 27, the crop estimates committee (CEC) releases its report outlining farmers’ intentions, particularly when it comes to maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.
Bounteous rains
Ordinarily, South African farmers plant about 4.5-million ha for summer crops. But last season, this increased marginally to 4.6-million ha as farmers took advantage of the favourable rainfall and crop prices. Most of this — 59% — was maize, with 26% being soybeans.
Whether we can replicate this growth depends on how they view the El Niño risk, as well as their tolerance for higher fertiliser and fuel prices.
Evidently the season won’t be easy — but we’re unlikely to see a major drop in the area planted. This is largely thanks to the favourable soil moisture, which should encourage decent plantings. And shorter-growing crop varieties may perform even better if we continue to receive moisture early in the season, as we are seeing now.
“The El Niño-southern oscillation, which is currently in a strong El Niño state, and current predictions indicate that it will continue strengthening towards a very strong El Niño state within the next couple of months and last at least until the end of the 2026-2027 summer season,” the South African Weather Service reminded us last week.
It noted that “predictions indicate that during late spring, early and mid-summer there are increased chances for below-normal rainfall over most of the northeastern half of South Africa.”
Carry on planting
While planning for such unknowns is key, it’s also important to remember these are forecasts with a high degree of uncertainty. Thus, we have emphasised the need to cultivate short-growing cultivars of various crops where necessary, rather than reducing planting.
For households, the CEC’s September 29 report underscored the positive sentiment we have expressed about the season we are leaving behind. The committee again lifted the 2025-2026 summer grain and oilseed production estimate by 0.5% from August to 21.7Mt. This is 6% higher than the previous season. The estimate takes in maize, sunflower seed, soybean, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.
The data reaffirmed our optimism that we are approaching the summer season in a much better position on domestic grain and oilseed supplies than during the recent droughts. This further eases the worries about a notable surge in food prices, at least in the first part of the season. Still, a lot hangs on many uncertainties.
Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior research fellow in the department of agricultural economics at Stellenbosch University
