The likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa’s agriculture and food prices in 2027 is a major point of discussion among analysts and economists in the country.
Weather forecasts are signalling that the world is heading towards a severe El Niño. The El Niño weather phenomenon tends to have a different impact on different regions. For Southern Africa, it typically presents drought, which is negative for agricultural production.
The anticipated drought is likely to arrive at the time of South Africa’s 2026/2027 summer crop season.
In my work as an agricultural economist and visiting various farming regions across South Africa, I believe that in examining the likely impact of this El Niño on crop production and, subsequently, on consumer food price inflation, two major factors need to be considered.
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