South Africa may be hoping its troubles with the US will leave office with President Donald Trump in January 2029. But that may not be the case, and waiting it out — especially as countries such as China continue to devastate local industries with cheaper imports — could prove an expensive mistake.
“Tariffs and sanctions were becoming normal tools of policy before Trump returned to office,” Chris Hattingh, executive director of the Centre for Risk Analysis, tells the FM. “A new president in January 2029 may be more predictable, but there is little reason to expect one who is less transactional.”
Capital that stays away this year “will not return on request”, he adds.
A beef with Bozell
Last week Pretoria issued its third démarche in nine months against US ambassador Leo Brent Bozell. He says President Cyril Ramaphosa has failed to respond meaningfully to five White House demands, among them denouncing Kill the Boer as hate speech and letting US investors use equity equivalent programmes instead of meeting BEE ownership rules. In September US secretary of state Marco Rubio announced visa restrictions on unspecified South African policymakers.
Fuel prices have surged since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February. Last month, the Reserve Bank raised its benchmark reference rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% and cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.4%. On Monday, the rand traded near R16.70/$, close to its weakest since late July.
Hattingh sketches four scenarios for the next two years, turning on whether global tensions escalate and whether the GNU adapts or waits. If Pretoria alters course, investment recovers gradually; if the world makes a turn for the worse, oil and rand shocks will hit the economy but not to the extent of causing a full-blown fiscal crisis.
If it waits, the likeliest outcome is a “slow leak” of low growth, lost investment and eroding access to the US. Close behind is a “compounding shock”: an oil spike or falling rand on top of weak public finances once US goodwill is spent. The evidence, he says, “is already visible at the pump and in interest rates”.
Independent political analyst Ralph Mathekga worries that “Pretoria has no strategy”. Its problems “will not die off with Trump”. Some members of Congress were already pressing for a review of South Africa’s relationship with Iran before Trump returned for his second term, he adds.
A Democratic surge in the US November midterms would not give South Africa “an immediate reprieve” either, he adds. “That America might be gone.”
Mathekga urges a de-escalation. “You can’t keep on démarcheing the ambassador, knowing that this is an issue he stands very strong on.” He also sees too little pushback from the DA inside the GNU, and doubts a post-Ramaphosa coalition would do better. “What comes after them could be worse.”
Minimal exposure
Econometrix chief economist Azar Jammine expects some improvement once Trump has gone. He sees the Gaza genocide case in the International Court of Justice as one reason for Washington’s hostility, and while some Democrats might share that pro-Israel grievance, he says, the form of it may not be “quite as pernicious”.
The US takes only 8% of South Africa’s exports, he notes, mostly platinum group metals, chrome, titanium and other minerals Washington has not acted against. That leaves “no more than 3% or so” exposed.
“That’s not to say it’s not important, but I think it’s exaggerated.” He would rather Pretoria focused on China, which he says has “completely eaten our breakfast”, especially in autos and steel. Imports from nations such as Vietnam, Brazil and India are hurting local industries such as textiles and poultry, and South African paper companies want protection from EU products. The department of trade, industry & competition has been lacklustre at tackling these issues, which are undermining South Africa’s bet on being part of Brics, Jammine adds.
Independent economist Xhanti Payi sees a government balancing sovereignty with economic interests that extend beyond a single trading partner.
Hattingh’s prescription is to make South Africa a more attractive place to invest in, without accepting every US demand. Pro-growth reforms are worth pursuing “not because of Washington [but] because they are in the best interests of South Africans over the long term”, he says.
“The government’s bet has a price, and South Africans are already paying it.”
