The South Africa-US relationship has reached crisis point. It urgently needs adults to enter the room.
In just 14 months, historically cordial and even warm diplomatic and business relations have descended into weekly exchanges of threats, warnings of sanctions, démarches and expulsions of ambassadors, rage tweets and inflammatory social media postings and diplomatic snubs. Lucrative, century-old trade co-operation is on the brink of collapse.
Temperance, collegiality and reason seem to have gone out the window. Now, policy is driven by the prejudices of partisan lobbyists such as the billionaire Elon Musk, trade is predicated on outdated ideology, friendship is determined by levels of obeisance. As a complex and fast-moving global picture demands sober analysis and quiet diplomacy, the relationship between the two countries is now conducted by social media and megaphone.
The result will be the loss of yet another ally and crucial business partner for the US, on the one hand, and a tough, even dire, political and economic future for South Africa.
South Africa is the US’s largest trading partner in Africa, with two-way goods trade of $22bn-$26bn in 2024-2025. There are more than 600 American companies operating in South Africa, some with a trading history going back more than 100 years. They employ, directly and indirectly, more than 220,000 South Africans.
South Africa is a key source of critical minerals (platinum, manganese, chromium) and vehicles for the US, heavily utilising the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa) for preferential access to US markets.
South African business and US companies operating here need to wake up. No politician, US or local, is coming to save this relationship. Business needs to step up and make politicians realise that their actions are about to destroy one of the great trade relationships between this continent and the US.
To see just how politicians are not the answer, look at the actions of Leo Brent Bozell III, the new US ambassador to South Africa. Bozell presented his credentials to Pretoria on February 23, 2026. Seventeen days later he was summoned by the South African government and made to apologise for addressing a conference where he said he did not “care what your (South African) courts say”.
Such remarks, coupled with his historical support for apartheid, should make you realise that this is not someone who is here to build for all South Africans and Americans.
Don’t look to South African politicians to put commercial sense at the top of their priorities, either. Every week we are regaled with ANC declarations that “we will not be bullied”. That’s great (and correct), but it’s not a solution to the forces imperilling US-South African trade relations right now. Rushing to constantly declare support for Iran, a murderous regime, is not just immoral, it’s poor tactics too.
Mary Vilakazi, the CEO of FirstRand, said two weeks ago that South Africa would be better served by a “much more neutral stance” on geopolitical issues.
“If investors start worrying about geopolitical fallout for South Africa, that is most unhelpful,” she told Classic Business. South Africa should rather “focus on what benefits the country”.
Vilakazi is asking for adults in the room. Bozell has already put his diplomatic foot in it with his impolitic utterances. South Africa’s political leadership cannot even be bothered to post an ambassador to Washington, almost a full year after Ebrahim Rasool was expelled from that country.
Politicians are not coming to save the US-South Africa relationship. It is up to South African and US businesses to initiate a process of detente. South African business has been central to recent initiatives to fight corruption and implement reforms to revive the economy. Before the 1994 democratic breakthrough, local and progressive US businesses made their resources and personnel available to help negotiations that secured a peaceful transition.
Given the gravity of the situation and the high possibility of escalation, it may be time for corporate leaders ― barring compromised outliers such as Musk, a spreader of misinformation about the country — to step forward to save the relationship.
Bozell said three weeks ago that he wants to double the number of US companies operating in South Africa and create another 250,000 jobs in the country. That is a pipe dream unless the deeply fractured relationship between the two countries is fixed.
Politicians are fast breaking this crucial relationship. Business leaders need to step in and clean up their mess.