Of course November 4 will be a hugely consequential day for South Africa. The once mighty ANC will continue its slide towards powerlessness and irrelevance. Coalitions formed after the election will affect how the government of national unity proceeds. And a multitude of other consequences are possible.
I will keep a careful eye on November 4, for sure, but the big deal for me is the US mid-term election on November 3. That’s when the US decides whether it is content to continue with the almost unfettered power that US President Donald Trump enjoys and has unleashed with devastating effect across the globe. The big question now is no longer just the outcome of the election, but whether Trump will accept a loss for his Republicans.
Trump has for two years been accused of taking a plethora of underhanded actions to prepare the ground to undermine the mid-term results. Two weeks ago The New York Times was moved to assemble a panel of eight experts to consider two questions: “The first: Who will emerge with control of Congress? The second: How will the elections be conducted, given the Trump administration’s attempts to exert control over the process? Will they be fair? Unimpeded? Chaotic?”
That second question is almost outlandish for those of us who have followed elections globally for the past 30 years. For decades, “rigged elections” was an idea one would not even raise about US polls. Close results, yes (remember the “hanging chad” controversy of 2000?). Now, “rigged elections” is daily fodder in conversations about the so-called leader of the free world.
Last week Trump joked that he had “the right to run again” for president. He invoked the debunked claim that the Democrats “stole” the 2020 presidential election from him and that this gave him the right to run for an unconstitutional third term.
“I think I have the right to run again because they cheated,” Trump said.
This is Zimbabwe-style stuff. Imagine the reaction if President Cyril Ramaphosa started speculating about running for an unconstitutional third term. “Banana republic” would make it back into the political lexicon.
Last week, the top two Democrats on the House and Senate intelligence committees told National Public Radio that they are operating under the assumption that Trump will allege fraud in these elections to justify his interference.
“We start with the premise that the president is going to do that. It would be irresponsible not to, speaking as somebody who was in the chamber on January 6, 2021,” said congressman Jim Himes.
To cap last week’s dodgy election shenanigans, Trump admitted that he had ordered the justice department to file a lawsuit to block the certification of the state of Alaska’s Senate results if the Republican incumbent loses. Voting rights experts called it an “unprecedented intervention” by the federal government.
Risk analysts should take Trump’s assault on election mechanisms and norms seriously. The chances are elevated that he will refuse to accept some losses on November 3. That might not collapse the US, but it could trigger tension, uncertainty and chaos. It would set a very negative example for the future of democracy across the world as well.
No pressure
A win or loss for the Republicans could change the complexion of the extremely strained, if not outright hostile, relationship between the US and South Africa. A win for the Republicans will result in an intensification of the Trump administration’s hostile actions towards Pretoria. A win for the Republicans means continuation of unfettered power for Trump’s federal government. He will face no pressure to rebuild the foreign relationships he has torched since January 20 2025, when he assumed power with a slew of executive orders, or to preserve South Africa’s trade status.
South Africans should take no solace from the fact that Trump recently signed an extension of the Agoa deal that includes the country and holds until December 2028. The president of the US retains the power to include or exclude any participating country. Ramaphosa said earlier this month that South Africa faces a “potential loss of duty-free trade access to the US”. The consequences for South Africa would be horrific: in the automotive and agricultural sectors alone, about 100,000–125,000 local jobs could be affected.
If the Democrats win, they could use their new power to demand oversight of Trump’s actions, restrict funding for his programmes and investigate his actions. This could delay or complicate Trump’s attempts to punish South Africa.
The stakes are high for November 4, but November 3 is the real nailbiter.
