The shape of South Africa’s future political leadership is beginning to emerge. It will become clearer after the November 4 elections, which will bring a fragmented local government landscape with numerous bit players clamouring for positions and power, making for brittle and messy coalition arrangements.
An exhausted ANC will take yet another body blow in 2029, and that’s where it will get interesting. Who will be in charge of a diminished ANC when it sits across from Geordin Hill-Lewis, Herman Mashaba, Gayton McKenzie, Songezo Zibi and others in the event of negotiations on a centrist coalition?
Events over the past few weeks indicate that ANC leader will not be Fikile Mbalula, the ANC secretary-general whose control of party branches meant he was one of the most serious contenders for the presidency.
Mbalula has been attacked and sued from various quarters, and lambasted by senior party leaders angered by the catastrophic handling of candidate registration for the upcoming polls.
There are allegations that he may have had a hand in excluding some candidates from lists meant to be registered with the Electoral Commission of South Africa. This week he is under fire for declaring: “I am the boss of the ANC.”
Talking himself out of it
Mbalula’s chances of becoming ANC president, given the enemies he has made, are now close to zero.
The other person who is unlikely to be negotiating with the opposition is Deputy President Paul Mashatile. He has been booked off sick for more than two months due to an undisclosed ailment and has been absent from the ANC election campaign. Controversies about his children’s unexplained wealth and his wife’s connections to the new lottery licensee cast a shadow over him.
So, who will lead the ANC when it goes to conference in December 2027? If that party leader is partial to the politics of the EFF, and perhaps Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, they may lead the ANC into a coalition with those formations — with all the policy complications that would entail. Or it could be a leader in the Cyril Ramaphosa mould, which would mean another business-friendly coalition like the current GNU could emerge.
Over the next few months, you will see debates in the ANC about electing a woman to take over from Ramaphosa. Gwen Ramokgopa, the ANC treasurer-general, and Mmamoloko Kubayi, the minister of justice & constitutional development, have been mentioned. It’s not going to happen. The ANC has a good track record on gender representation, but the party is still patriarchal at heart and will not make that leap just yet.
A vigorous debate is already raging about “generational shifts” and the election of young leaders. Most people in the ANC are talking about 51-year-old electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa. In January he “admitted” that he was being lobbied for the position. Ronald Lamola, 42, the minister of international relations & co-operation, has also been touted. Neither has a strong enough constituency in the ANC or heavyweights who are punting for them.
Two “clean outsiders” touted by some senior ANC leaders are MTN chair Mcebisi Jonas and businesswoman Wendy Luhabe. Jonas, a former deputy finance minister, has been extremely active in advocating for a more prosperous South Africa and is seen by some as a strong candidate to “rejuvenate” the party. As for Luhabe, who is chair of Pepkor among other things, would she want to take such a thankless job?
A winner in the business world
That “clean outsider” label is what the numerous provincial formations that have been promoting a Patrice Motsepe candidacy are hoping will put him in pole position. The billionaire tycoon has consistently said he is not running. Well, ask any of those mentioned here if they are in the running and they will say the same. Anyone who even expresses an interest in the job will be condemned as overly ambitious and accused of violating ANC protocol, which is that campaigning opens next year.
The ace up Motsepe’s sleeve is that he does not need the ANC. It needs him and will need him even more after the beating it is headed for on November 4. He has name recognition, a “clean reputation”, and can bang the drum that he is a messiah — for the ANC and for the country. He is still the frontrunner, but, sadly for anyone who wins, being the ANC leader may no longer guarantee leadership of the country.
