Judging by the shrill noise on social media, for many the biggest political story in South Africa last week was the announcement by the politically weak and morally bankrupt US secretary of state, “Little Marco” Rubio, that his country would place visa restrictions on South African individuals it says are complicit in perpetuating race-based discrimination.
He warned of “imminent” violence. As usual, a man with the mighty Central Intelligence Agency at his beck and call cannot produce a shred of evidence for this “imminent” violence, just as he has not been able to find evidence for his “white genocide” claims.
He said nothing about helping with South Africa’s real emergency: the extraordinary criminality that allows women to be raped and murdered, leading to all of us — black and white, men and women — living in fear.
It doesn’t matter, though. On November 3 the Republicans are likely to lose the majority in the House of Representatives; they might even take a knock in the Senate. They are mired in a “forever war” in Iran. US President Donald Trump earned at least $2.2bn during the first year of his second presidential term — equivalent to what Zaire’s notorious dictator, Mobutu Sese Seko, made in 10 years of kleptocracy. The Republicans have been trying to rig the election by excluding as many voters as possible from the roll, but they are failing. Last week the Supreme Court handed Trump a major defeat when it rejected his bid to restrict mail ballots.
Trump and his nepotistic, racist and corrupt administration will be out in two years. They can hurt South Africa, sure. But the world has turned against them. Even their allies, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, find them reprehensible. The world is laughing at them.
Workers of the world, split!
The really big political story, the one with genuine consequences for South Africa, has received little coverage over the past week. This is the extraordinary collapse, adjournment and postponement of the 15th national conference of trade union federation Cosatu last Tuesday, following deep ideological and leadership disagreements.
The conference was halted after two days, ostensibly because Mike Shingange — a major contender for the Cosatu presidency — was suspended by his union (the National Education, Health & Allied Workers’ Union) for apparently defying instructions not to sign a form to make himself available for the Cosatu leadership position. The real reason, however, is that Shingange is a close ally of SACP leaders who reject the ANC’s decision to form a government alliance with the DA. To them, the DA is the enemy. They want the ANC in bed with Julius Malema’s EFF.
Cosatu is divided right down the middle. Unions such as the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and leaders such as Cosatu president Zingiswa Losi favour President Cyril Ramaphosa and the GNU. The SACP is so incensed by the ANC’s inclusion of the DA in the GNU that it is fielding more than 4,000 candidates against the ANC in the local government election on November 4. It even said this weekend that it is considering calling for Ramaphosa’s removal from office.
Cosatu is the country’s largest trade union federation, representing 1.8-million workers. It is followed by the militant, hard-left South African Federation of Trade Unions and the business-friendly Federation of Unions of South Africa. The ANC’s power lies in Cosatu’s ability to mobilise members to vote for it — and the party’s ability to involve it in business-government-labour agreements that bring stability to the labour market.
Think about the implications. Cosatu could split. Individual trade unions like NUM could split, leading to fights on shop floors and mine sites. Remember Marikana, when the rookie Association of Mineworkers & Construction Union came along? The ANC-led tripartite alliance of the ANC, SACP and Cosatu — the de facto governing alliance of South Africa since 1994 — could finally collapse and die. A spent ANC will go into even more complex, fragmented and unstable local coalitions after November 4 and in 2029.
Crucially, Ramaphosa will be significantly weakened without his labour support. The GNU-supporting faction in the ANC will be under pressure. The national coalition may then be so fragile that it could collapse.
