Oil spike and bond sell-off keep rate hike in play

A GDP contraction has dealt ablow to South Africa's economic momentum, endangering growth targets

A sharp drop in July inflation has led economists to rethink interest rate projections

Markets bet on a hike, some economists are seeing a hold next month

Predictions for further rate hikes are all over the show after the Reserve Bank’s surprise pause

Consumer inflation hit a two-year high of 5% in June, firming bets on a SARB rate hike at Thursday’s MPC meeting

Mark your calendar: here is the political and economic news to watch out for in the days to come

A frenzied gold rally in January has long since cooled, but the World Gold Council reckons the precious metal is back at a tipping point

Lower oil prices have eased inflation risks and boosted bonds, but uncertainty over expectations and US rates keeps a July hike in play

First-quarter GDP beat expectations at 0.5%, but household consumption fell to a two-year low, signalling economic headwinds amid rising rates.

It’s time to bid Jibar goodbye and welcome Zaronia: the main new rate for South African loans, bonds and derivatives

Joburg’s tariff increases gravely undermine the Bank’s efforts to rein in inflation, and compound the misery of higher interest rates

The SARB hiked 25bps to 7% but debated 50 – and its revised inflation and oil assumptions mean a July increase is already on the table

Higher oil prices, rising inflation and the rand: South Africans need to brace for a 25-basis-point rate hike

Mark your calendar: here is the political and economic news to watch out for this week

Bond yields are at levels last seen in the 2007 crisis. Equities are at record highs. One of these markets is wrong – and it’s probably not bonds

South African inflation hit a 20-month high of 4% in April. The fuel surge from the Iran war has shifted the rates conversation to possible hikes

Treasury’s fuel-price relief ends in July, and if the Iran war drags on, the prime interest rate could surge above 11.5%

March CPI rose to 3.1%, within the SARB’s 3% target band, but the Iran conflict’s oil price shock is set to push April inflation sharply higher

The Iranian oil shock is reversing South Africa’s modest recovery, exposing structural weaknesses in energy, investment and household spending