Rob Rose and Zukile Majova are joined by Gareth van Onselen, CEO of Victory Research, for episode 27 of Sharp Sharp, the weekly podcast on politics, money and power from the FM and Scrolla.Africa.
Can we trust the polls? Gareth explains how election polling works, what separates good research from bad numbers and why a poll is a snapshot rather than a prediction. They examine sample sizes, margins of error, political bias and the questions journalists should ask before reporting a headline figure.
The conversation turns to the local government election. Gareth unpacks the ANC’s turnout problem, the DA’s prospects in Joburg and Tshwane and the forces behind the rise of MK and the Patriotic Alliance.
They also explore why voters staying home can matter as much as voters changing parties, what the ANC’s candidate list failures mean for affected municipalities and how wishful thinking shapes the way we read polls.