Zambia has had an exceptional maize production season. The country is expecting its largest maize crop on record, which will provide an essential cushion ahead of the challenging production season in the upcoming 2026-2027 summer.
Over the past few months, I have seen various optimistic statements from the country’s ministry of agriculture. But the picture became clearer when the US department of agriculture released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, prominently featuring Zambia, with 2025/2026 maize production estimated at 4.9Mt. This is up 28% from the previous season and is the largest maize harvest on record.
The bumper harvest is due to an expansion in the area planted to 2-million hectares, up 17% from the 2024/2025 season, as well as higher yields, driven by favourable La Niña rains. This large maize harvest far exceeds Zambia’s annual maize needs of 2.8Mt. The country will have about 2Mt of maize surplus for export or to boost carryover stocks into next year. Zambia will be a key supplier of maize to Zimbabwe and other Southern African countries in need. This will build on the supplies we already see from South Africa to the region.
Importantly, Zambia’s record maize harvest will help ensure that the country has a better start to the likely drier season in 2026/2027, without already facing a maize supply deficit. From a regional perspective, Zambia and South Africa will likely be the key countries to support those with large deficits.
South Africa also had a record maize harvest in the 2025/2026 season, estimated at 17.4Mt, against the annual needs of 12Mt. The excellent rains and decent plantings were also the key catalyst behind South Africa’s large maize harvest.
