Gayton McKenzie, the leader of the Patriotic Alliance (PA), sounded remarkably confident when he named the parties he expects to join forces to block a DA-led coalition in Johannesburg while on the campaign trail in September.
“I can tell you now how the coalitions will look in Gauteng. Don’t listen to the excitement of Helen Zille. Let me give you the Joburg coalition and come back to me with this: ANC, EFF, IFP, PA and MK. That is the Joburg coalition.”
Interestingly, McKenzie left ActionSA off his list, despite the party already being in a coalition with the ANC in Tshwane.
Herman Mashaba’s party is polling at around 10% in pre-election surveys, a significant addition to any coalition seeking to keep the DA out of power in Johannesburg.
Four political parties are approaching the November 4 local government elections with an opportunity to wield far more power than their individual electoral fortunes suggest.
The MK Party, ActionSA, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and the PA could emerge as the kingmakers in Gauteng’s three metropolitan municipalities, deciding who becomes mayor of Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni.
The ANC and the DA may dominate the ballot, but neither can assume that smaller parties will accept its leadership. In fragmented councils, the largest party does not necessarily get the mayoralty. It gets an invitation to negotiate.
Why smaller parties matter
The ANC has an advantage because it has demonstrated a willingness to accommodate smaller parties, even when that means surrendering mayoralties or important executive positions. The four potential kingmakers have reasons to believe they could get more from an ANC-led coalition than from one led by the DA, whose Johannesburg mayoral candidate Helen Zille.
This is the politics of the tail wagging the dog. The latest eNCA/MarkData polling puts the DA at 35% in Johannesburg, against 21.8% for the ANC. The MK Party has 12.5%, the EFF 11.9%, ActionSA 10.3%, and the PA 3.7%.
In Tshwane, the DA polls at 33.9%, the ANC at 24.9%, the EFF at 12.3%, ActionSA at 10.7%, MK at 5.2%, and the PA at 2.1%.
Ekurhuleni is more competitive, with the DA on 31.2% and the ANC on 29.4%. MK polls at 11.5%, the EFF at 9.2%, ActionSA at 6.1%, and the PA at 2.5%.
The polls show why the smaller parties matter. In Johannesburg, the ANC, MK, EFF, PA, and IFP together account for about 50.6% of voting intention. In Ekurhuleni, the same combination reaches approximately 55.4%.
They demonstrate that the ANC has a plausible route to power without the DA.
The question is what the kingmakers will demand in return. For Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, the negotiations extend beyond Gauteng. The party wants to consolidate its influence in KwaZulu-Natal, where it has challenged the ANC’s dominance, and strengthen its position in national politics.
An agreement with the ANC in Gauteng could offer MK executive positions and greater leverage in its relationship with Zuma’s former political home. The party also has an interest in securing a route into the government of national unity (GNU), although municipal cooperation would not guarantee an invitation.
Mashaba wants a city to prove his point and has made it clear he will not work with Zille again. He told the Financial Mail/Scrolla.Africa podcast Sharp Sharp that Zille cannot be trusted.
Mashaba has a particular interest in Tshwane, the only metropolitan council ActionSA currently leads.
The ANC supported ActionSA’s Nasiphi Moya for mayor in October 2024, after the removal of DA mayor Cilliers Brink. A renewed agreement could help ActionSA retain its governing position and showcase its administrative capacity.
The ANC, meanwhile, could secure a foothold in the capital without insisting on holding the mayoralty itself. That may be a price worth paying if it prevents the DA from controlling Tshwane.
Is Malema eyeing a bigger role?
The EFF’s relationship with the ANC has swung between cooperation and confrontation. In Ekurhuleni, the EFF previously held executive positions in an ANC-led arrangement before withdrawing in February after two of its mayoral committee members were removed.
EFF leader Julius Malema also wants to turn the EFF’s electoral support into national executive power. He has indicated that the party would consider joining the GNU under the right circumstances, particularly if the DA and Freedom Front Plus left.
The ANC cannot guarantee Malema a ministerial position or give the EFF everything it wants in Ekurhuleni. But it remains a more plausible partner than the DA, which has ruled out coalition agreements with the EFF.
The PA has the smallest polling share of the four parties in Gauteng. But McKenzie understands that a few councillors can become decisive when the major parties cannot secure a majority.
The PA is part of the GNU and has developed working relationships with the ANC in municipal politics. In Johannesburg, the ANC restored PA deputy president Kenny Kunene to the transport portfolio after a dispute threatened their relationship.
A new coalition could offer the PA further opportunities, potentially including the deputy mayoralty, the speakership, or influential mayoral committee positions.
“I am saying the PA will work with anybody that gives us power … the political space is a terrain of power. We will work in the PA with anybody. We will even work with this gogo [Zille],” McKenzie said.
The DA has its own potential coalition partners, and its insistence on clear agreements and shared governing principles is not without merit. But its refusal to work with the EFF and MK narrows its options. If it also expects smaller partners to accept its leadership and surrender strategic portfolios, it risks making an agreement harder to achieve.
The ANC may have to surrender some authority to retain a larger share of power. The smaller parties will have to decide whether the rewards justify the compromises, particularly if their coalition partners disagree over policy or the distribution of positions.
Their electoral support may be modest, but their bargaining power could be substantial.
Catch more of Zukile’s viewpoints at Scrolla.Africa, a mobile-first news site covering breaking stories fast from communities across South Africa in English and isiZulu.
