The vocabulary of South African coalition politics remains trapped in a familiar trope — of captured parties and unholy alliances.
Accusations by some that the ANC is pandering to its historic adversary, the DA, and grumblings by others that the DA is merely propping up a failing ruling party dominate public discourse and will do so until well beyond November 4.
However, a closer assessment of the coalition era reveals the opposite is true, and the very intensity of the debate indicates that our constitutional system has finally come into its own. South Africa’s multiparty dispensation was designed for coalitions — for plurality, inclusivity and power-sharing, rather than the one-party dominance that characterised the first three decades of democracy.
As the battle for voters intensifies ahead of the local government election, attention will increasingly shift to the makeup of coalitions across the country’s 257 municipalities — and, more especially, in the eight metros. It may be premature to count ballots that have yet to be cast, but the FM understands this has not prevented parties from already taking tentative steps towards dealmaking, as happened in 2024.
But the arguments in favour of and against tie-ups between various players are really moot until the numbers begin to roll in. This is especially true because pollsters tell vastly different stories about the extent of support for the larger parties two months before voting day.
In Joburg, the Social Research Foundation polled the DA at 42% as its mayoral candidate, Helen Zille, wages a vigorous campaign. This poll put the ANC’s support at 18%, with the party still not having settled on its mayoral choice among the three potential candidates it has rolled out. Ipsos places the ANC’s support at 33% to the DA’s 27%, aligning closely with the result of the 2021 local government election.
These two polls indicate that either the ANC or the DA could emerge as the largest party — and, as political practice goes, the largest party is given first bite at pulling together a coalition.
Smaller parties such as the EFF, ActionSA, the Patriotic Alliance, the IFP, Al Jama-ah and a host of others now command significant support in the city, together representing about 40% of the vote share. Their role has been largely opportunistic and extractive since 2016. This election will determine whether voters have caught on to this and whether it will affect their support.
Strange bedfellows
So, what are the chances of a DA-ActionSA tie-up in Joburg?
On the surface, it looks unlikely; the relationship is highly volatile and acrimonious, with a history laden with antagonism, distrust and betrayal. But it will depend on the numbers. The more support ActionSA wins, the greater the destabilising potential would be for a DA-led coalition or hope of control. If the DA lands on 30%–40% of the vote, it will more likely look to the ANC for support, but in the unlikely event it garners 42%–48%, ActionSA would be an easy coalition option, without posing a significant threat.
The ANC’s options look simple: to fix Joburg, the DA would be the most logical choice. But if the ANC emerges as the largest party and its Gauteng leadership leads negotiations, it is unlikely to swing this way — even nationally, leaders such as powerful deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane would prefer going the EFF and MK Party route.
The Gauteng ANC has been working with the EFF since 2021 and the MK Party has been co-operating with the ANC at a provincial level since 2024. Despite the fact, obvious to both politicians and the electorate, that this coalition has only deepened the crisis in Joburg, the ANC in Gauteng under Panyaza Lesufi would prefer to retain it; for this grouping, a tie-up with the DA is an undesirable option.
What has changed since 2021 is that Lesufi’s leadership has grown tenuous — he was not re-elected as party chair in the province and the provincial leadership has been dissolved (the structure leading it now is an appointed task team). This could enable the national leadership to take control of negotiations and impose coalition partners — but, again, this would be risky.
Though it’s the neatest option, an ANC-DA tie-up won’t be smooth sailing. The ANC in Joburg’s council would still be led by a regional leadership hostile to the DA — and the same would apply under a DA-led coalition.
The options ahead are fraught, but the beauty of the system is that parties will learn quickly what works and what doesn’t — and will be rewarded and penalised accordingly. Voters will catch on and, in the next election, have the freedom to punish poor coalition choices. It’s the democratic way.
Marrian is a political analyst with the Bureau for Economic Research
