The ANC’s failure to announce its mayoral candidates for key cities over the weekend marks a significant setback for an election campaign already on the back foot.
Differences between the party’s national officials on the City of Joburg mayoral pick, on the eve of the announcement on Saturday, culminated in the ANC abandoning its plan to announce candidates for the nine metros and secondary cities.
Instead, it announced the shortlisted candidates for each post.
It is understood that the officials were split down the middle between party veteran and integrity commission chair Frank Chikane and ANC regional chair Loyiso Masuku. Deputy President Paul Mashatile was off sick, meaning there was no way the impasse could be broken between the six remaining officials, culminating in the decision to hold off the announcement.
The city has emerged as ground zero in the 2026 election season, as a tough battle beckons.
The DA was first out of the blocks as early as last September, naming former Cape Town mayor and Western Cape premier Helen Zille as its mayoral candidate. ActionSA, another formidable player, is fielding the party’s founding leader and former Joburg mayor, Herman Mashaba. The EFF has selected long-time member, clinician and global advocate for women’s health Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng as its candidate, and Rise Mzansi is fielding former political analyst and scholar Lukhona Mnguni.
The MK Party said in June it would announce its candidates in two weeks but has not done so yet. There is a possibility it will throw the name of its new deputy president, Duduzane Zuma, into the ring.
The ANC is aware of the high stakes in Joburg. Chikane is the frontrunner for the party’s candidacy, but there is also a deep fear that factions associated with Masuku and incumbent Dada Morero could be demoralised by the announcement of an outsider and sit on their hands instead of campaigning ahead of the poll.
ANC insiders say Saturday’s climb-down on announcing Chikane further damages the party’s electoral prospects. It was argued that failing to select Masuku would have consequences due to factional battles within the party. Then there’s the debate on gender; Masuku would be the first female candidate on an ANC Joburg ticket.
Further discussions on the mayoral pick for the city will now take place at a national executive committee meeting this week.
A ‘unified ticket’
Historically, the ANC did not announce mayoral candidates ahead of the election and instead campaigned using the party brand and the face of its president. However, internal research conducted after the 2024 national election showed that the ANC could no longer rely on its brand. Corruption, state capture and a failure to deliver basic services have caused severe damage to the former liberation movement.
This was behind the move to announce mayoral candidates in advance this year, and to open the selection process to outsiders.
However, it also opens the ANC to another risk: that leaders with a base in the party could defect to splinter parties such as Zuma’s MK and the SACP, which is contesting elections on its own for the first time.
There is now a growing argument for a “unified ticket” in which Chikane would be the face of the campaign and provide the moral grounding as the party’s mayoral candidate, with Masuku as his deputy. In this scenario, Chikane would focus on restoring trust and strengthening governance structures, while Masuku would take charge of the technocratic side of governing.
Irrespective of the ANC’s mayoral candidate, it is set to face a tough election in Joburg, with both its track record in by-elections since 2021 and opinion polls indicating that its support is at its lowest level yet. The latest Social Research Foundation/Common Sense opinion poll places its support at a historic low of 18%. Its support in real terms declined from 45% in the 2016 local government election to 34% in 2021. It maintained its support at 34% in Joburg in the 2024 national election, though turnout in national elections outstrips local polls significantly — and the ANC generally performs better in national elections than local ones.
Insiders say the problem it has faced in Joburg since 2016 is that it doesn’t have a solid grasp of who its voters are any more and where they are located. This problem arose after informal settlements sprung up on the outskirts of areas once considered ANC bases, such as Soweto, after the EFF called for people to occupy vacant land.
What should have been a routine announcement on Saturday has now turned into a complex dance. As the ANC tiptoes around factional considerations, opposition candidates are moving ahead with their campaigns. If it continues dithering, the election will be as brutal for the party as the polls are predicting.
Marrian is a political analyst with the Bureau for Economic Research
