In recent weeks, fears have ratcheted up among South African farmers of the impact that the expected El Niño weather system will have on local agriculture. And yet there is reason to be hopeful that South Africa might escape relatively unscathed.
The threat of El Niño, which means “little boy” in Spanish and occurs every few years, shouldn’t be underplayed. This global phenomenon is caused by changes in the trade winds in the Pacific, and in our region it tends to spark heatwaves and below-average rainfall, upending the predictability that farmers need.
But there are signs that South African farmers are better positioned in this 2026/2027 season than they were in 2015/2016, when the severe El Niño drought caused havoc.
Back then, the impact was brutal. One of the most severe droughts the region had seen caused crops to fail, which slashed maize production by a quarter, to below 9Mt. Food inflation spiked 6.8%, and water cuts were imposed across the country.
This time there is optimism because, going into El Niño, our soil moisture levels are far higher, as are water levels in our dams, after a rainy La Niña (“little girl”) period. This will provide South Africa with a running start.
The caveat, of course, is that if the season presents what we have seen in various parts of Europe and the Americas, the improved soil moisture and the better water levels may not provide a lasting cushion.
Still, another supporting factor for South Africa is that we are closing a robust agricultural season that brought record harvests in grains and oilseeds. This will provide a base for next season and ensure that while commodity prices may increase, the country doesn’t face shortages of agricultural supplies in the near term.
In the case of fruit and vegetables, the commercial fields are all under irrigation, and the dams may help, provided we don’t experience the extreme heat that parts of the northern hemisphere are experiencing.
On balance, South Africa is in a better place than it was 11 years ago. But this doesn’t necessarily hold true for the rest of the continent. For one thing, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa haven’t enjoyed the robust grain production that we’ve had at home.
As a result, countries such as Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia have imported grain from South Africa. The fact that they did so while they were completing their 2025/2026 season shows that their domestic harvest wasn’t enough to meet their needs.
A poor yield for these countries this season would hurt them badly, at a time when demand for grain and other commodities is likely to be strong.
The only region, in fact, where El Niño may prove to be more benign is East Africa. Ordinarily, when there is an El Niño, Southern Africa is hit hard by drought, while the likes of Kenya get higher-than-normal rains.
But because Kenya isn’t a major grain producer, it seems unlikely it will use this opportunity to lift grain production and export to needy neighbours. After the El Niño drought in 2015/2016, it was Mexico that ended up sending maize to feed the region. This may be the case again.
There is another unknown that could play a big role in how this plays out.
In the past, when times got tough, the World Food Programme (WFP) would step in and help send grain to areas that need it. It is unclear whether the WFP would be able to do this again, since its funding has been affected by the wholesale cuts in aid imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration.
If indeed Sub-Saharan Africa runs into trouble, it will be a big test of the WFP’s strength on the African continent amid these funding cuts.
El Niño, of course, is only one factor that could play a role in how our farms perform this year. Here at home, the year will be challenging for households, businesses and farmers — all are battling a sluggish economy that has grown at less than 1% over a decade.
In the first quarter of this year, agriculture did well — growing at 3.9% year-on-year, way ahead of the overall 0.5% rise in GDP. But whether this pattern remains intact if households struggle remains to be seen.
South Africa may be poised to do better than its neighbours, but it will still have to be far smarter about managing its farming resources once El Niño lands.
Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture & land, the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior research fellow in the department of agricultural economics at Stellenbosch University
