The battle for Joburg in 2026 is the most exciting electoral race in democratic South Africa’s history.
The city’s historical significance is undeniable, but its economic heft is at the heart of its value to any political party serious about power.
So it’s curious that the DA has taken more than three decades to take the bid for the city seriously, with Helen Zille kicking off her campaign last year.
Back in 2016, when the DA fielded entrepreneur and Free Market Foundation chair Herman Mashaba, the party did not anticipate that he would win the mayoral chain.
But the Jacob Zuma presidency had fomented a rebellion in the city that the ANC in Gauteng was unable to contain.
It was an unforgettable time: the ANC in Gauteng was effectively a pariah inside the party — the only province standing against Zuma’s near-decade-long rule. Its then leaders were in a state of despair, with their own internal research showing Zuma had caused irreparable electoral damage.
Still, the ANC emerged as the largest party in the city, and Mashaba emerged as mayor through a DA/EFF deal.
In 2021, the ANC was again the largest party in the city — amid the tumult and uncertainty of Covid, coupled with rolling blackouts and a dramatic decline in the delivery of basic services. The ANC’s tally of the vote closed at 33.6%, followed by the DA at 26.14%.
Current polls indicate that the DA is set to emerge as the largest party in 2026 — a historic feat. Polling from the Social Research Foundation and The Common Sense places the DA at 42% in Joburg and the ANC at just 18%.
That a party other than the ANC could emerge as the largest in the city would mean its liberation capital among South Africa’s middle class across races is utterly spent.
Winning Joburg
Elections analyst Dawie Scholtz explains what politicians rarely do: the numbers.
Scholtz, using his own elections model — built from the demographic makeup of every ward and its own unique characteristics — places the ANC at 27% and the DA at 39%.
What will it take to emerge as the largest party in Joburg?
First, the DA’s electoral performance in 2016 was propelled by two factors: its dominance among urban voters, and its ability to ensure that those voters actually turned out on election day.
“They got like a 38% vote in 2016, right? They got that off the back of basically the entire suburban electorate, including the coloured electorate, being united behind the DA,” Scholtz says.
At the time, the suburban vote was not fragmented, as it became in 2021 and 2024, when voters opted for alternatives such as ActionSA, Rise Mzansi, the FF Plus and the Patriotic Alliance. This united suburban vote meant the DA claimed up to 80% of the vote among this grouping.
“A further factor was turnout in the suburbs, which in 2016 was at a historic high — DA voters turned up in their numbers to vote,” Scholtz says.
This has not happened since.
Will the “Zille factor” draw out the DA’s base again “because they’re, like: ‘OK, finally we can get rid of these ANC guys,’”? “It’s an open question. My theory is on the balance of probabilities, yes.”
In short, Scholtz believes that if the DA can get its urban voters back from smaller opposition parties and get them to turn up to vote on election day, it will emerge as the largest party.
The flipside is whether ANC voters behave as they have since 2016.
The township vote has been in steady decline, Scholtz says, bottoming out at about 30% in 2021. If this segment of the electorate continues to fracture as it did in 2016, 2021 and 2024, turning from the ANC to ActionSA, the EFF and MK, the contribution of this grouping to the ANC’s share of the vote could remain static or decline.
Another crucial factor is whether Zille can draw in a section of the township and black electorate that the party could not attract in past elections.
Here, Scholtz is more sceptical, but says the city is in uncharted terrain.
There are a number of unknown factors too. For example, the ANC had, at the time of going to print, not yet announced its mayoral candidate (it’s an open secret that it’s Frank Chikane) as it struggles to manage its fraught internal dynamics.
Should the DA fail to emerge as the largest party, the ANC in Gauteng and Joburg is likely to pursue a coalition with populist, extractive parties such as Zuma’s MK and the EFF.
The fate of the City of Joburg is not just a fascinating electoral race, but a key test of South Africa’s penchant for political risk. Sacrificing Joburg on the altar of extractive populism will answer a question investors and international markets have been asking for years: is South Africa still worth the risk?
Marrian is a political analyst with the Bureau for Economic Research
