The populist Abahambe (they must go) anti-migrant coalition that has mushroomed in recent months and rattled South Africa is falling apart. Its constituent parts are coming unstuck, and internally combusting. Is this the end of the hateful, violent, economically destructive movement?
I don’t think so. While it would be fantastic to be rid of some of the irresponsible individuals and groupings in the coalition, the issue will not go away. It will continue to be fertile ground for political exploitation unless the authorities act decisively to address the root causes of migration.
The distressing visuals accompanying reports that at least 24 people died last Friday trying to reach the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in North Africa underline that this is a global emergency that is not about to subside unless proper leadership steps up.
More than 40,000 migrants entered Ceuta from Morocco in just a few hours. As European politicians, particularly those with elections looming, criticise Spain for its handling of the crisis, South Africa must take note. Political disruption follows migration rumblings — swiftly.
Three formations have been in the forefront of the latest anti-migrant movement in South Africa: the high-profile March and March, led by former talkshow host Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma; a loose grouping of Zulu amabutho (regiments) led by self-styled cultural mobiliser Nkosikhona “Phakelumthakathi” Ndabandaba; and the Bhinca Nation cultural group of former Zulu radio personality Ngizwe Mchunu.
The speed with which the three garnered support and built a fast-moving organisation has raised questions about their future. Will they form a political party, mimicking the successes of the far-right, anti-immigrant UK politician Nigel Farage?
If that’s the plan, it’s not going so well.
On the eve of the June 30 deadline set by Ndabandaba for illegal immigrants to leave South Africa, he and Mchunu were invited to visit President Cyril Ramaphosa. They went along without telling Ngobese-Zuma. Ramaphosa is charming, and the pictures from the meeting — full of backslapping and jokes — got the anti-immigrant mob fuming on social media.
Now Mchunu has called for an end to March and March protests, which are supposed to take place every Thursday until the government shows it is serious about driving out illegal immigrants. “We can’t march forever,” Mchunu said. The organisation swiftly suspended him from its ranks “pending further investigations”.
Meanwhile, Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, which has been a key player in the broad anti-migration movement, continues to implode. The party is turning into a joke. Over the past few weeks Zuma has stripped his entire leadership of powers and conferred them on himself. Last week he fired the party’s eighth secretary-general in just two years and announced that all powers now lay with a 20-member strategic presidential team, which he leads. Zuma controls the party’s finances, security, operations, electoral commission representation and communications after he fired the incumbent office-holders.
There is no MK Party, really, following Zuma’s firing of everyone — including his daughter — from every conceivable position over the past 18 months. It’s a one-man operation, with the rest of its leaders following Zuma around like zombies.
So, with all the issues roiling both March and March, and its biggest and most high-profile sponsor, the MK Party, what are the chances of a populist anti-migrant coalition playing an even bigger role in South Africa? Is the danger of widespread anti-migrant mobilisation perhaps dying down?
The next national elections are three years away. In that time two things could happen: the March and March movement might collapse under a pile of scandals, funding questions and internal contestation. The MK Party might collapse due to Zuma’s dictatorial tendencies.
Yet, if the current GNU does not resolve the issues that opened space for March and March and that have mobilised support for the likes of the MK Party, then even more formations and parties organising around the anti-migrant issue will emerge and flourish.
Ramaphosa outflanked and outplayed the anti-migrant marchers by deploying thousands of law enforcement personnel ahead of the June 30 deadline, thereby preventing chaos. That was not enough, though. This government needs to move swiftly to make illegal migration a non-issue in South African politics. Failure to do so opens the country to far-reaching political disruption that has populism written all over it.