Twelve hours after polling stations officially closed, the results are starting to stream in.
Here is a quick overview of where things stand nationally and in respect of the metros as at 9am. For the metros, it is still too early to make any conclusive calls, but some trends are starting to emerge. Overall, it is looking like a very good election for the DA and ActionSA, a bad election for the MK Party and the EFF and a disastrous one for the ANC.
The CSIR has released its first national projection as below:
The ANC and DA figures are largely as public polling predicted. The surprising figures are the MK and EFF numbers, and ActionSA’s projection of 5%. ActionSA seems to be performing really well among voters in Gauteng’s townships, where it is hurting the ANC and EFF in particular. Outside of Gauteng, it has recorded an impressive performance in Laingsburg, Western Cape, where it has emerged as the biggest party in the municipality.
National turnout looks to be heading for 52%, which is up from 2021.
How do the metros look?
Joburg
Suburban turnout looks to be high, which will be to the benefit of the DA. ActionSA is performing well in the townships, as is the DA. We still firmly believe that the DA is on track to be the biggest party.
Tshwane
The DA looks to have recorded a significant differential turnout here and is on track to be the biggest party. The woes of the Bronkhorstspruit water crisis appear not to have damaged ActionSA in Tshwane’s townships, where it is performing way above previous levels.
Ekurhuleni
The ANC looks set to lose its status as the biggest party in the metro. Both the ANC and EFF are declining in the metro’s townships, with both ActionSA and the DA growing.
Cape Town
At this early stage, it looks like the DA will retain the metro. Its suburban vote has held, turnout is decent, and its share of the vote in Cape Town’s townships has increased. The PA looks likely to take some of its coloured vote, but not a significant enough chunk to threaten its control of the municipality.
Nelson Mandela Bay
Again, the DA looks set to become the biggest party. The ANC appears to be dropping a bit in the metro’s townships, and the PA will make a bit of an impact here.
Mangaung
This could be one to watch. The ANC looks to be suffering in the townships and could be brought significantly below 50% here.
Buffalo City
While the ANC is also declining here, it looks like it will at least be the biggest party.
eThekwini
At the time of writing, no results are in yet for KwaZulu-Natal’s metro.
This elections update is provided by The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. Follow The South Africa Brief on X.
