As the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) results board starts to populate for 257 municipalities after the November 4 local government election, all eyes will be on the eight metro municipalities.
With good reason. Buffalo City, Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Joburg, Mangaung, Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane are the richest and most populous municipalities in local government. About 40% of South Africa’s registered voters live in these eight metros, and the budgets of the five biggest (Joburg, Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini and Tshwane) are in the tens of billions of rands, larger than most provincial and national department budgets.
With South Africa’s political landscape permanently changed after the ANC lost its outright majority in the 2024 national election, what happens in the metros on election day — and the coalition governments that form — will have significant meaning for South Africa’s parties as they look to shape their prospects ahead of the 2029 general election and beyond.
Buffalo City and Cape Town are relatively predictable in terms of which party will lead for the next five years. However, the other six are all firm battlegrounds, residing in “toss-up” territory.
Buffalo City
The Eastern Cape metro is the one where the ANC is almost assured of forming a government, either via an outright majority or through a significant plurality. In 2021, the ANC received 59% of the vote and in 2024, 56%. By-election trends in the eastern half of the Eastern Cape show that this is one geography where ANC support is relatively stable, so no fireworks are expected.
Cape Town
In the Western Cape metro, the DA looks likely to retain its control, either via a fourth successive outright majority or a sizeable plurality. In 2021 and 2024, the party got 58% and 56% of the vote.
A poll conducted in August and September by News24 and the UK communications firm SABI Strategic Group placed the DA at a comfortable 56%, with DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis selected by 56% of respondents as a favoured mayoral candidate. The eNCA/MarkData poll, also from August and September, puts the party slightly lower but still at an outright majority, with 52%.
While the PA has made great strides in Western Cape by-elections, it seems its growth trajectory may be greater in the rural parts of the province. It does represent a threat to the DA on the Cape Flats, but not to the extent that it will threaten control of the municipality.
Joburg
Given Joburg’s status as the country’s economic hub and home to 8% of South Africa’s voters, the election in the city has set the national agenda. This has been propelled by the candidacy of former DA leader Helen Zille. She has made it very clear that the DA’s objective is to win an outright majority, which her party believes will take 490,000 voters.
Past election trends and public polling show this may be a stretch.
In 2021, the DA managed 26% of the vote, and it won 25% on the provincial ballot in 2024. Polling conducted by The Common Sense and The Social Research Foundation (TCS/SRF) between September 18 and October 12 put the party at 36% in the metro to the ANC’s 22% — a mirror of the eNCA/MarkData poll, which had the DA at 35% and ANC at 22%.
The News24/SABI poll is less bullish for the DA, having it at 29% to the ANC’s 23%. This poll also asked registered voters about mayoral candidates, with Zille receiving 36% of the vote.
The scenario that’s emerging is that the DA is odds-on to become the biggest party in Joburg — but it will have to make hard choices if it wants to lead a coalition. Even with 35% of the vote the DA cannot form a majority without the EFF, unless it chooses to partner with the ANC. It will in all likelihood choose to remain in opposition if it falls below 35%.
This is all to say there’s no clarity on what governing coalition will control the city after November 4. What is safe to conclude is that the DA will be the biggest party, but that its ceiling will be about the 40% mark. The bigger question is the DA’s appetite for a coalition.
Tshwane
The capital is currently under the leadership of ActionSA mayor Nasiphi Moya, whose party is a minority coalition partner to the ANC. Public polling from both TCS/SRF and News24/SABI suggests the DA is on track to become the largest party in the metro. Both polls place the DA at 32%, with TCS/SRF placing the ANC at 26% and the News24/SABI placing it at 24%.
As in Joburg, the path to a coalition for the DA may prove challenging, though its ceiling in the metro may be higher than in Joburg; the TCS/SRF July poll placed the party at 43% in the metro at that point.
A notable finding from the News24/SABI poll is Moya eclipsing DA candidate Cilliers Brink as the mayoral candidate of choice, despite her party placing fourth, with just 11% of the vote.
Ekurhuleni
The ANC looks set to decline in Ekurhuleni on the basis of established Gauteng trends. The eNCA/MarkData poll has it losing its status as the biggest party in the metro, with the DA edging out the ANC in a close-run 31% to 29%. It would be quite a reversal in fortunes: in 2021, the ANC got 38% and the DA 29%; in 2024, the ANC got 35% and the DA 27%.
Given the metro’s sizeable Zulu demographic, MK may emerge as a significant player, having secured 14% of the vote in the 2024 national election. eNCA/MarkData now places it at 12%. With the EFF sitting at 9% and ActionSA at 6% in the same poll, this may be one metro where the ANC — with the support of smaller parties — is able to cobble together a coalition to keep the DA out.
eThekwini
Public polling is pretty unanimous that MK will be the biggest in KwaZulu-Natal’s metro. Jacob Zuma’s party secured 48% of eThekwini voters in the 2024 election, hammering the ANC and relegating it to the third-biggest in the metro, after the DA.
The key question here will be the prospects of a government of provincial unity replica in the metro. This would require the ANC, DA, IFP and potentially a party such as ActionSA working together to keep MK out of the mayoralty.
The TCS/SRF and News24/SABI polls point to Zuma’s party achieving significant plurality with both polls placing it at 43%. TCS/SRF has the DA at 28%, the ANC at 13% and the IFP at 6%. News24/SABI is similar, with the DA at 30%, the ANC at 11% and the IFP at 6%.
Despite Zuma’s health issues and the internal chaos, MK heads towards November 4 dominant in the metro. Numerically, the party could form a coalition with the ANC or with the IFP and some smaller parties, though this would almost certainly derail the government of provincial unity. The DA, ANC and IFP would need to include ActionSA and still need one more seat for a majority.
Nelson Mandela Bay
The local elections of 2016 broke the ANC’s hegemony in the metro, and the ANC and DA have been neck-and-neck ever since. In 2021, the DA won 40% to the ANC’s 39%, while in 2024, the ANC edged the DA 38% to 36%. eNCA/MarkData has the DA leading the ANC in the metro by just 30 basis points — 37.7% to 37.4%.
This is a metro where the PA could be a kingmaker. It secured 6% in 2024 and eNCA/MarkData has it at 4% now. If the DA is unable to break into the 40%-plus range and remains within touching distance of the ANC, the ANC may be able to forge a coalition to maintain control.
Mangaung
Before the Constitutional Court’s finding in favour of the ANC on its list submissions, the party was in trouble in the metro, facing an election with no proportional representation (PR) candidates. However, now that the ANC will be able to compete on the PR ballot, it looks likely to retain control of the municipality, but probably as the senior party in a coalition. The party was hovering on 50.1% in the 2024 election and looks odds-on to be brought below 50% next month.
Differential turnout
A key factor that will define both the results and the coalition negotiations that follow is voter apathy. South Africa’s declining turnout trends over the past decade, coupled with the general disillusionment of the electorate, point to a low turnout on November 4.
In a low-turnout election, differential turnout matters. The DA has always performed better in local government elections than general elections because its relative operational efficiencies in low-turnout scenarios lead it to bringing more of its supporters out on election day than the ANC can.
In 2016 and 2021, reports from Joburg and Tshwane indicated that the DA achieved differential turnout rates of about 15%-plus in both metros. If it can do something similar next month in metros across the country, and bearing in mind the ANC’s declining support and MK’s incursion, the picture in municipalities such as Joburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay may be less tight than expected.
Coalition negotiations
Not just in the metros, but countrywide there will be numerous municipalities with no outright majorities. South Africa’s law requires coalitions to be formed within 14 days of the declaration of results.
What is going to be foundational is whether coalitions are negotiated at national, provincial or local level. If a national GNU can be extended to the local situation, life will be a lot less complicated in the scramble towards the inaugural council meetings. If not, and separate deals are made province by province, municipality by municipality, municipal residents could be in for a rough ride over the next few years.
In Gauteng, this will matter significantly. If deals for Joburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni are handled nationally, then there is a potential chance that the DA and ANC will find a way to work together in the interests of local government stability. However, if Panyaza Lesufi’s Gauteng team leads the negotiations for the ANC, there will be no chance of any deal with the DA, as was seen with the Gauteng government of provincial unity. Lesufi will look to the EFF and smaller parties.
An added complication is the 14-day deadline for councils to elect mayors. Though the main parties will be saying they are focused on the campaign and getting out the vote, it is highly likely that scenarios and plans have been drawn up. The floor of the IEC’s results operations centre will be a very interesting place on November 5 and 6.
Moakes and Berkowitz are with political analysis group The South Africa Brief
