Does the old adage “location, location, location” still ring true when it comes to how much money South Africans are making on residential bricks and mortar? Absolutely. That much is clear from the latest housing data from various industry players which reflect an ever-widening gap in the performance of different regions.
Unsurprisingly, the Western Cape — Cape Town in particular — continues to lead the pack in terms of house price growth. In fact, research from independent economist John Loos shows that the Western Cape and Northern Cape (albeit to a far lesser degree) are the only two provinces where homeowners have seen inflation-beating capital growth since 2010. Loos’s analysis of Stats SA’s house price indices, which he adjusted using CPI inflation, shows that the other provinces all recorded inflation-adjusted declines over the past 16 years.
Loos says that though residential property can indeed be a creator of wealth, that has not been the case in seven provinces, all of which recorded “very significant” real average house price declines over the longer term. He cites a better perceived quality of life, on the back of scenic natural surroundings and relatively better service and infrastructure delivery, as a key reason for the Western Cape’s outperformance.
“This has attracted relatively better investor confidence in the Western Cape and Cape Town, stronger net inflows of higher-income and skilled households, and an outperforming economy that has had stronger job creation than most others.”
Loos says the upshot is a significantly stronger housing market, and higher property and rental values on average compared to other provinces. “These are the implications of relative regional economic success,” he adds.
Figures released this month by mortgage originator BetterBond show just how much more homebuyers are forking out for a roof over their heads in the Western Cape than in other regions.
In the 12 months to August, BetterBond clients were paying an average R2.45m for a house in the Western Cape, almost double the R1.25m of buyers in the Free State and Northern Cape, the two cheapest areas in South Africa in which to buy a house. The price gap between the Western Cape and Joburg also remains hefty.
How long it takes to sell your house is another key metric underscoring just how stark the divergence is between the housing markets in South Africa’s two largest cities. It now takes more than 90 days on average to clinch a deal in Joburg vs typically less than 40 days in Cape Town, according to time-on-market data from analytics firm Lightstone.
Joburg’s best-performing price bracket is the R4m–R6m segment, where listings stayed on the market for an average of 45 days in the second quarter. It is also the only price category where Joburg beats the national average on time on the market. In Cape Town, the R1.5m–R2m sector is the most active, with sellers waiting just 16 days for a buyer to sign on the dotted line. Homes above R6m are the slowest to sell in Cape Town, at 49 days, but that is still almost half the 93 days it takes to sell in Joburg.
Hayley Ivins-Downes, Lightstone’s managing executive for real estate, says a shorter time on the market typically signals strong buyer demand or limited supply, attractive or accurate pricing, and a highly desirable or good location. “The seller has more negotiating power, with likely multiple offers and faster closings.”
A longer time on the market could mean weaker demand or excess supply. Properties may be overpriced, and buyers tend to have more negotiating power.
Joburg ‘stagnating’
Ivins-Downes adds that the recent trajectory of housing activity in Cape Town has been “upward and investment-led”. That is despite the Mother City being challenged by housing inequality and unaffordability, which have been worsened by the inward migration of more people looking for work.
Joburg’s housing market, on the other hand, has been “stagnating in parts and drifting downwards in others”. Its woes can be largely ascribed to governance and infrastructure issues, which Ivins-Downes says need to be fixed before the city is likely to see a broader recovery.
But it is not only Joburg’s housing market that is in limbo. Housing sales and house price growth appear to have stalled in most regions in recent months, as would-be homebuyers no doubt wait for clarity on where interest rates are heading. Home loan application volumes processed nationally by BetterBond in July and August are down 11% from the three-year highs recorded in the third quarter of 2025. The mortgage originator also recorded a marginal quarter-on-quarter drop in national house prices in the third quarter.
A year ago, the housing market was just starting to gain momentum on the back of lower interest rates, a recovery that was, of course, rudely interrupted by the start of the war in Iran at the end of February. While the subsequent spike in oil prices, inflation and interest rates has dampened activity in recent months, industry players say the market remains “resilient”.
As BetterBond’s national head of sales, Bradd Bendall, points out, home loan application volumes are still higher now than they were in late 2023 after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates three consecutive times. “Our latest data suggests that the property market remains on a relatively firm footing, despite continued pressure on households.”
Pam Golding Properties CEO Andrew Golding shares that sentiment. He says despite a tougher economic environment, buyer appetite remains encouraging and has been supported by competitive mortgage lending among the banks and strong growth in key regional markets.
Pam Golding’s national house price index reflects an inflation-beating 4.9% average uptick in the first seven months of 2026, which Golding says is the strongest growth recorded by the group since the post-Covid rebound in 2021.
Referring to the Western Cape, Golding says regional performance remains highly differentiated, with the province still outperforming the rest of the country by a “significant” margin. In the year to July 31, Western Cape house prices rallied 10.6%, compared with 3% in Gauteng and 2.6% in KwaZulu-Natal. Cape Town recorded 11.4% — well ahead of Ekurhuleni at 4.3%, Tshwane at 3.1%, Joburg at 2.3% and eThekwini at 2.1%.
Golding reckons the Western Cape’s performance increasingly reflects structural demand rather than short-term market cycles. “Cape Town and the broader Western Cape continue to attract people relocating for lifestyle, economic and other reasons,” he says. However, as affordability issues start to weigh on buying decisions, buyers are broadening their search beyond Cape Town into surrounding towns and coastal areas that offer better value for money.
Election watch
Meanwhile, long-suffering Joburg homeowners are no doubt placing their hopes on the November local elections and a potential change of political leadership to lift flailing property values.
Samuel Seeff, chair of Seeff Property Group, reckons this year’s local government elections will be “seminal” for the property market. He says local municipalities control the infrastructure, service delivery and policies that affect property values and investor confidence.
“It is why property markets such as the Western Cape, Cape Town and surrounding areas in particular, continue to lead the country compared to Gauteng, especially Joburg.”
Seeff believes the local government elections will directly shape the property market, as reliable service delivery increasingly drives real estate value, especially in South Africa, where well-maintained roads, efficient waste management and dependable utility infrastructure significantly add to an area’s desirability.
Conversely, he notes that dysfunctional municipalities tend to trigger asset depreciation. “When local infrastructure crumbles, investors lose confidence, tenants relocate, security risks rise, and demand for property and the prices that buyers and investors are prepared to pay decline.”
