The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) has had to up its game in every election since 1994 as new complexities arise in the country’s electoral environment. This year is no exception.
First, South Africa’s politics has become increasingly fragmented; it is no longer characterised by the one-party dominance of the mid-1990s to late 2010s.
Second, ordinary South Africans are not as enamoured of the idea of democracy as they were a decade ago.
Then there are the security risks stemming from upheaval in the top echelons of the police, and the anti-immigrant protests that peaked in July.
And, crucially, digital advancement and social media have shaken up the electoral landscape globally. The result: disinformation has become a defining threat to the coming election cycle.
It is in this milieu that co-operative governance & traditional affairs minister Velenkosini Hlabisa on Friday proclaimed the local government election (LGE) date as November 4, setting in motion the final countdown to the hotly contested 2026 local government polls.
The FM spoke to IEC chair Mosotho Moepya hours before the proclamation and the closure of the voters roll.
What’s clear at the outset is that the IEC is entering the elections on the back foot.
For starters, trust in the commission has dropped precipitously. According to a Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) survey of voter attitudes, commissioned by the IEC and released in March, trust in the IEC has fallen from 74% in the mid-2000s to just 32%.
The survey also found that as faith in democracy has faded, so has citizens’ belief in the IEC. Trust in the commission among those who are satisfied with democracy is at 55%, but this slips to just 17% among those who are not satisfied with democracy — the vast majority of those surveyed.
“LGE 2026 is being planned in the most challenging pre-electoral climate observed over the past 30 years, marked by high levels of pessimism, frustration and disengagement, and geographic disparities,” the HSRC report says.
“Confidence in core political institutions has weakened further, with trust indicators at historic lows, including for the electoral commission. Dissatisfaction with democratic functioning and local service delivery has deepened, contributing to a softening commitment to key democratic norms, such as the perceived importance of free and fair elections.”
It adds that the election is set to take place in a highly competitive, low-trust and high-risk environment.
On the ground
How is the IEC responding? Vigorously, says Moepya.
Take KwaZulu-Natal. Trust in the commission is lowest in the province, at just 20%. In part, this could be attributed to former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, which has a strong support base in the region. After the 2024 election, MK launched a court bid against the IEC, claiming the election had been rigged. The case morphed, as the party withdrew and relaunched its bid. It was finally heard on June 17, with judgment reserved.
“We believe that once the court has decided the matter and certainty will prevail, order will follow and a successful election will be in place in KZN,” Moepya says.
In the meantime, the commission has spent a considerable amount of time in the province, meeting political parties, community and traditional leaders, and NGOs.
“We thank stakeholders in KZN who we have engaged, and [who] we remain in engagement with throughout this process, and I must admit that some of those conversations were difficult, but they are bearing much fruit and for that we are very grateful,” he says.
The IEC cannot afford to rest on its laurels, though. While it is “doing a huge amount”, it needs to do more due to the shifting political environment, says political analyst Susan Booysen.
“The IEC is a very pointed target, a big target for specific political strategies,” she says, with MK and other parties locking onto the IEC as part of their mobilisation strategy.
For that reason, building trust is crucial, says Booysen. One of the ways the IEC can do this, she suggests, is by leaving a longer period after the election results are tallied for disputes to be resolved before the final results are announced.
It’s no small matter. The credibility of the election and its results sit squarely with the IEC. This is why the commission’s research and preparations are critical.
“We don’t do this because we expect to be told a very rosy story,” says Moepya. “We do this because we want to prepare and meet the expectation of the voter.”
The commission moved immediately after the survey results were released, meeting all affected parties to share the negative mood among voters. It’s a crucial step, given how political parties’ unkept campaign promises can leave voters disillusioned.
“For political parties and candidates, we really and truly expect them to listen carefully to the voter who says: ‘When you come to me and you hear what I want, and you promise that you will do it for me, please go and do it.’ So those are the kind of things we have shared with political parties.”
The youth feel particularly alienated from political processes, and from the commission itself. An Ipsos poll released in March found that 40% of young people aged 18–24, and 42% of 25- to 34-year-olds, are less likely to trust the IEC, with the highest levels of distrust in these age groups in KZN.
The IEC has, as a result, launched specific programmes to reach out to young people through social media and the SABC. For the first time, the IEC employed students on campuses to register other students, drawing young people into the administration of the election.
“South Africans in general have indicated that … though they may be very upset with what democracy may have not done for them, they are keen to participate,” says Moepya.
“We are holding ourselves to account and we are challenging our stakeholders who have a role to play in this to up the game and ensure that as many of the South Africans who are eligible to participate in this election are in fact enabled to participate.”
Countering disinformation
Apart from voter attitudes, security is a central concern, given the volatility around anti-immigrant mobilisation. The March and March movement has indicated it will be continuing its mobilisation weekly all the way to the election, creating potential risks for the commission and its work.
To that end, Moepya says the IEC is working closely with the security agencies via NatJoints — the National Joint Operational & Intelligence Structure — which includes police, defence and intelligence to plan, co-ordinate and implement operations related to national security, stability and public safety.
He recalls the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, before the democratic breakthrough, when political violence and killings were the “order of the day”. Despite this, South Africa was able to reach a democratic settlement.
“None of our problems [now] are beyond that. The issue of illegal immigrants must be settled in a manner that is dignified, and so we appeal to communities, we appeal to leaders, we appeal to those who are following their leaders, to act with restraint and to treat others as they would themselves want to be treated.”
Disinformation is a new and potent threat.
“When our laws were all written … there was no such thing as disinformation in the manner that we have it on social media and other places today,” Moepya says.
Countries must adapt, and fast, because disinformation poses a “real threat to elections” and can have a direct impact on voters. By way of example, he explains how social media can be used to spread the message that a voting station has closed three hours early, affecting turnout among voters who still intended to visit that station.
The IEC has developed a disinformation code. It is set to pass and publish an additional code of conduct for political parties and the public to fight disinformation. Moepya admits, however, that this is a difficult space to police.
Still, the IEC has to remain steadfast amid South Africa’s shifting political sands. November 4 and its aftermath will determine whether its preparation was enough to see it through an election in an environment of unprecedented political risk. The credibility of the outcome depends on it.
Marrian is a political analyst at the Bureau for Economic Research.
