The MK Party’s electoral juggernaut may have been brought to an abrupt halt by recent local government by-elections, with the party winning just one seat in the wards it contested. And it could be headed for further stormy weather if it fails to build party structures and develop a compelling narrative beyond that of court action and the Jacob Zuma personality cult, analysts say.
Zuma’s party stormed onto the political stage in the May 29 elections, winning just over 4.5-million votes to become the third-biggest party in the National Assembly, with 58 seats. At provincial level, its 1.6-million votes in KwaZulu-Natal won it 45.9% support, making it the single biggest party in that legislature (even if it has been forced to cede power to a government of provincial unity comprising the IFP, the ANC, the DA and the NFP).
So it would have seemed logical to think that its outsize support would translate into local votes as several wards in its KZN stronghold held by-elections last week. Six of those were triggered by ANC councillors resigning their seats and defecting to MK. But if the councillors had hoped their move would result in their re-election under different political colours they were sorely disappointed; five failed to win re-election. In the final tally, the ANC retained three seats, the IFP held onto two and MK won one.
Overall, the IFP was the big winner in the 12 KZN by-elections, taking five new seats and retaining two.
For Paul Berkowitz, director of the democracy think-tank Third Republic, the results weren’t unexpected; northern KZN has long been an IFP and ANC stronghold. But elections analyst Wayne Sussman confesses he was surprised that MK “didn’t shoot the lights out”, as the party had carefully chosen the wards it was contesting instead of going for all the constituencies on offer. He also thought the party’s supporters would be buoyed by how well it had done in its first election, and that this would translate into increased support at the polls.
“I would have thought that MK voters would have been more motivated because they came so close to winning an outright majority in the provincial elections, and that their voters would have been more energised because they are the largest party in KZN,” says Sussman.
“There was an expectation that MK would continue to forge ahead and surge forward with its remarkable results from the May 29 general elections. It won one ward and has its first councillor, but I believe it would have thought it would do better. Of the councillors who walked over to MK, only one — the most high-profile — won and, even then, by only 17 votes.”
Political analyst Sanusha Naidu agrees that the results will have disappointed the party.
“MK would have loved to have that momentum to continue, and to say: ‘We are the most popular party everywhere, even in the areas that people did not think we would be’,” she says.
But what the results clearly show is that “the honeymoon is over”, Sussman says; the party can no longer rely on Zuma’s charisma or hope its internal strife won’t affect how the electorate sees the party.
MK’s leadership struggles have made headlines, with former leader Jabulani Khumalo unsuccessfully challenging his expulsion from the party in court. Just last week the party announced that impeached judge president John Hlophe would lead it in the National Assembly — even though he was not on the original list of 58 MPs to represent the party in parliament.
In further signs of a shake-up, the party has dropped 21 names from the original list it sent to the secretary of parliament to make room for other MPs. According to the Sowetan, the party instructed more than a hundred to withdraw their names from the reserve list of candidates to make room for the latest batch.
Elsewhere, MK has been in the news for various legal matters, including challenging Zuma’s disqualification for running for the party and a more recent attempt to get the Constitutional Court to interdict the first sitting of parliament and set the results aside, based on the argument that election management body the IEC had erred by rushing to announce the results prematurely. (It failed on both counts.)
That could have cost the party.
“MK has been in the news for challenging the elections and for whether its MPs will be sworn in or not, instead of for the bread-and-butter issues,” says Sussman. Still, he says opportunities could present themselves for the party “because if there is a tie-up between the DA, the ANC and the IFP, there is a space for more radical and even more traditional messaging, because those relate to the two constituencies where MK does well”.
Sussman says that while it is hard to say why MK did not do as well as it would have hoped, it’s possible that the Zuma factor had limited impact at a local government level.
“Perhaps the absence of Zuma’s name and picture from the ballot paper, which is what gives MK additional momentum, and [the presence of the ward candidate’s name instead] might have been a factor,” he says.
Sussman, Berkowitz and Naidu all agree that it is time for MK to return to the drawing board and diversify its electoral offering. For a start, the party needs to start formalising its structures.
As Berkowitz explains: “It will have to sort itself out internally first. Election campaigns require focus and energy. To be a sustainable party of any kind [requires having] internal party structures, governance processes and the establishment of branches.”
And, Sussman adds, the party cannot simply rely on the charisma of one individual.
“It is vital now that MK gets its MPs sworn in. Convince people that this has the full backing and passion of Zuma, and convince them that there is a bench of people who can carry this party forward and that it was not a one-elections wonder. Zuma is 82 years old. I don’t see him leading MK in the next election, from outside or inside, and certainly not with the same vigour as we saw him demonstrate in the recent elections campaign.”
For now, the result will have bought the ANC some time to convince public representatives who are pondering their political loyalties to remain in the party fold.
“What we have been hearing is that MK has been telling councillors: ‘Move over to us and you’ll be guaranteed a position in 2026,’” says Sussman. “What we see is that it is now no longer such a compelling offer. If five of those councillors had remained in the ANC, they might still have a job today. ANC councillors who are unhappy in the ANC and like Zuma will now think twice before jumping ship.”
Naidu says that while MK built a brand around being opposed to “Ramaphosa’s ANC” and has successfully created the impression among some councillors that their long-term fortunes were with the new party, local communities prioritise their everyday experiences.
People are pragmatic, she says. “They are not going to vote for a councillor who did not think about them when they were in one party, or allow themselves to be caught up in party battle lines. They are not going to vote for councillors who did not perform [or] think that joining MK will make them bring that ward to MK.”
While Berkowitz envisages the possibility of some ANC individuals and factions still finding MK to be a suitable vehicle for their ambitions, this is unlikely to be based on any ideological differences. Still, it could be an uphill battle for MK, as its entry into politics could cause the IFP and the ANC to park their traditional rivalry. “Historically the IFP and the ANC have contested northern KZN. But if the national and provincial coalition holds, and the two parties work together, MK’s job to win any real power at local government level becomes a lot harder,” says Berkowitz.
So is this some kind of barometer for the 2026 local government elections? As Naidu tells it, the history of political killings in the province, particularly in the local government sphere, and ever-changing dynamics make it difficult to use by-elections in rural areas as a predictor for the 2026 poll.
“These communities are not static. Chiefs and community leaders die. Younger people move away to the cities. Their complexion and constitution is always changing,” she says.
“For now, the IFP will take the win and it will be comforting to it that it still has that traction. But it is not something that can make them say: ‘When the next by-election comes we will be OK’.”
At the same time, Naidu adds, “the message to MK is that you can’t just say: ‘I am MK, I represent the alternative’. People want to see structure; they want to see how you embed yourself and develop yourself within the community; they want to know what is your strategy. It is not enough to campaign on an anti-ANC ticket.”